NJ Gov results

[Kdillard]

http://elections.nj.com/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by...



Not looking great so far for Corzine. I hope it changes. Corzine needs some big numbers to come his way.

[fedupinBushcountry]

1. Oh come on

with 1 out of 6305 precincts reporting. Give it time.

[skipos]

5. We're DOOOOOOOOMED!

Actually, I do think Corzine will lose.

[wisteria]

118. He might. He barely won the last time out. He is not popular

and that is because he really has taxed many people out of that state. Add to that the huge 11% recreational/vacation tax he imposed and I can understand why people are upset with him.

[Kdillard]

6. Sorry I guess I am just in a black mood today.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Look at the results and compare them to 2008.

Obama slaughtered McCain in that state. He won by 15-points. Corzine isn't going to win by that much. However, right now, he's running only a bit worse in two counties as Obama and about the same (right now) in Hudson.

If that trend holds, Corzine will win. Won't be by 15-points, but it will be a win.

[Kdillard]

12. Thanks :)

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Right now, Corzine is doing better in Cumberland. Obama won Cumberland 59-38.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Actually, it looks about the same as the 2008 results.

The county Corzine is losing, Obama lost 59-40. The county Corzine is winning, Obama won 55-43. So right now, Corzine is running behind Obama, but you've got to remember - Obama won the state 57-42.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

95. The problem is turnout. This is not a conventional election night. n/t

[Teaser]

3. what is wrong with you?

that's with 1 precinct reporting.

[Hawkeye-X]

7. Probably in Bumfuck County Percient #901823098

Where there was only one nose pickin' redneck that likes Christie because his name spells with Christ.

Probably spat a loogie or two of his chaw while figurin' out how to vote.

Hawkeye-X

[KingFlorez]

4. One precinct? It's over

Everyone knows one precinct is all it takes.

[Thrill]

8. Nate silver

fivethirtyeight

SUSA had Christie winning indies by 30, R2K by 15, Quin by 15, PPP by 23. Although, all those polls had Christie winning overall.half a minute ago from txt

fivethirtyeightfivethirtyeight

CNN exits have Christie winning indies by 25 pts. That's fairly consistent with the pre-election polling.4 minutes ago from txt

fivethirtyeight

Corzine can survive with indie #s like that but he'll need to have had strong dem turnout.

[MadBadger]

13. Turnout among African American increased by 3% compared to 2008

Though it decreased by 9% among young voters.

[santamargarita]

9. It takes time to run votes through the GOP server in Knoxville, TN

[Jennicut]

11. 37 precincts reporting now

37 of 6305 Precincts Reporting - 1%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Christie, Chris GOP 16,191 51%
Corzine, Jon (i) Dem 12,720 40%
Daggett, Christopher Ind 2,494 8%

Behind by about 4000 votes. That is not dreadful.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. Corzine will need to run it up in the following counties:

Camden (not in yet).
Hudson (70% right now, about Obama's total in 2008).
Essex (not in yet).
Bergen (not in yet).

[Jennicut]

16. Thanks! You are giving great analysis here.

Maybe Chuck Todd needs to find a new job (doing the math on election nights is all he is good at)

[Kdillard]

17. You are the best. I just really want some good news tonight.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Lead is down to 9.

As the major areas begin to report, it'll tighten up. Corzine needs to win big in the heavily Democratic regions to offset the independent support Christie is getting in the more moderate/conservative counties.

If he can't win Essex and Hudson with 65-70% of the vote, though, I don't think he'll take the state.

[Sebass1271]

19. whtever happens today is a referemdum on P. Obama

Whether we like it or not, a lot of dems and young voters don't like what he is doing.. meaning, nothing on health care!!. he has been dancing to several tunes instead of being clear and forceful into what he wants. We had great chance this year to pass MEANINFUL health care reform because we had house, senate and executive and blew it.

It is not the right wingers who are turn off. The sentiment out there is that Dems are the ones turned off by Obama’s indecisions on health care

[Sebass1271]

24. how come the party turned away from Dr. Dean? they closed

the doors on his ideas and creativity. Dean "invented" the wave of new voters and looked for progressive candidates to run in key seats around the staes, dems ignored him. They don't want him not even as an adviser. So, now, they are screw!

[iceman66]

36. Very good question!

After the success of Dean's 50 state strategy, he should have been offered SOME position in the Obama administration!

[Sebass1271]

44. trust me, Dr. Dean as chairman we would have won

Virginia. We would have had a better candidate to run for Gov. He would have bee all over the media, radio, tv, internet and he would have used young voters to mobilize GOTV in virginia and NJ. The guy is brilliant and only received a slap in the face by the establishment.

Where is our chairman? I haven't seen him on tv or doing something since he was elected as chairman.

[mvd]

64. I don't even remember the name of our chairman

For some stupid reason, Emanuel hates Dean.

[iceman66]

71. Dean's replacement is Tim Kaine, the soon to be former governor of Virginia.

How's that for irony?

[Sebass1271]

74. who makes all these decisions? it sounds idiotic.

[mvd]

75. Oh yes - I had heard that before but forgot

On another note: do you think McAuliffe would have had a chance to win the governor's seat?

[Sebass1271]

84. yes, i think he would have had a better chance. He seemed to

be more of fighter than this guy. I think lot's of repukes voting him out in the primaries cuz they knew he was the stronger candidate.

[HughMoran]

72. Nice right-wing talking points

[Sebass1271]

82. That's how i feel and that is how a lot of us feel. just listen

to liberal progressive radio. Read progressive pages on the internet and finally talk to your family member that supported P. Obama and see what he/she thinks.

Trust me, i don’t want to sound like a right wing talking point. It is the general sentiment. We feel our hands are tight and don't have the support of our president to back us up! Look at what is happening with Lieberman!!. Not one word from our leadership!.
Look at how he is letting ppl destroy his original vision and passion of passing a good health care reform. When will he be stronger on the banks? what about regulations on those banks? Why is he so ambivalent? I don't want him to be bipartisan. I want him to do what he was elected to do! Without remorse!.

That is the general sentiment and is reflecting on Virginia and NJ.

Sorry

[Zynx]

20. There's precious little to go on, but Christie is running stronger than Forrester back in 2005.

That's not a surprise, but it isn't good enough for him yet to say he is in decent shape to beat Corzine.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. It's going to be a nailbiter.

I don't see a blowout here or even a comfortable win. It's going to be one to two points. Which means everyone should relax and grab a cup of joe - we're gonna be here for a while.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. Now 7-point lead.

[Kdillard]

23. Lead down to 6 percent.

[Sebass1271]

25. who's winning?

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Christie...

He had a big lead early and it's evaporating.

[Drunken Irishman]

Well it was...haha

[Sebass1271]

32. i don't know what to think of what is happenign today?

i've been thinking all day about it and it really is bothering me. I have so many conclusions. I can't believe we didn't win virginia after obama winning that state and after having a dem governor and two dem senators.

We need Dean back. We really need Dean back.

[Kdillard]

35. I would not put much stock in the Virginia loss today the Dem candidate was

awful. Plus Virginia has made a habit of selecting a governor the opposite of the party in power.

[Sebass1271]

47. with Dean as chairman, the candidate would have been much

better..

[Kdillard]

29. Christie so far with 4 percent reporting. Chrisite just had a huge surge of votes

hopefully Corzine will have the momentum later on to change things. As DrunkenIrishman said sit back for the long haul.

[Kdillard]

26. Yikes Christie just had a huge surge of votes.

[Zynx]

28. Ocean County, a big repuke stronghold, just came in with a lot of precincts.

[Sebass1271]

34. i din't know there were repukes in NJ.. i thought it was all blue

Gosh.. i guess, they're everywhere.. how disappointing

[KingFlorez]

39. Just like fungus and disease, they have a presence all over the place

[Drunken Irishman]

42. Of course there are.

It's a very moderate state. Up until the 90s, it was Republican-leaning.

Bush won it in 1988.
Reagan won it both in 1980 and 1984.
Ford won it in 1976.
Nixon won it in 1972 and 68.

Prior to Clinton in 1992, Johnson was the last Democrat to win the state.

[Sebass1271]

49. Reading the names of all those repukes..i can't help to feel

of throwing up and I know my pregnancy has nothing to do with it. NJ contributed to all those assholes!?

[tilsammans]

128. Rethugs are all over like dog shit in this area of NJ, with . . .

. . . a large and vocal teabagger contingent.

[tilsammans]

129. Rethugs are all over like dog shit in this area of NJ, with . . .

. . . a large and vocal teabagger contingent.

[Drunken Irishman]

30. Yeah...but that's because of Ocean County.

Which is at 23% - the highest of the counties counted.

He leads there 65-28. McCain won that county 58-40 in 2008...so it's not a surprise.

[MadBadger]

31. A lot of the results comingn in right now are from Ocean, typically a Repuke stronghold

[Drunken Irishman]

33. The key here is that Essex and Hudson are only at 1 and 2% reporting.

[Sebass1271]

38. are those counties stronghold for Dems?

[Kdillard]

40. Yes and they must go for Corzine by a huge margin.

[crazylikafox]

37. which districts have the city votes? like Newark?

Sorry, I'm not from Jersey

[KingFlorez]

41. Newark is in Essex County

[crazylikafox]

43. thx

[smokey nj]

45. And Jersey City's in Hudson County.

[Sebass1271]

52. i hear jersey city is filled with cubans... they don't vote for dems..

[smokey nj]

81. That's Union City.

Jersey City's VERY Democratic.

[Sebass1271]

86. ohhhhh....thanks.

[Sebass1271]

87. ohhhhh....thanks.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

104. Newark and other areas in No. NJ must have a HUGE turnout. The Repukes are galvanized tonight.

They may take most of the races tonight.

And they have been galvanized in Maine to stop gay marriage. I wouldn't be surprised if they succeed!

[Drunken Irishman]

46. Not liking the fact Corzine is losing Bergen County...

It's a swing county Obama won by only 9-points...but I think he needs this one to win.

Though it should be noted Clinton lost the county in 1992 and won the state by two-points.

In fact, 1992 might be the map to compare this to since there is a strong third party candidate.

[Kdillard]

48. I hope you are right

[Zynx]

50. He's actually doing pretty much what he needs to tie. That pisses me off.

[Drunken Irishman]

53. Yup.

It's going to come down to a point or two. This isn't going to be a walk or even a comfortable win by either candidate.

I'm thinking it'll come down to the support in the cities as opposed to the suburbs.

[Sebass1271]

60. hasn't it always been like that? gotv need to be strong in

the cities to offset the suburbs?

[Drunken Irishman]

67. If it's a close race, yes.

I mean, if the suburbs are leaning Democratic as was the case in 2008, than it wouldn't matter.

But if it's a 50-50 race, that's exactly what needs to happen.

[Sebass1271]

56. Wow! you are filled with statistics, numbers adn information

at the tip of your fingertips. You are good. YOu should take chucky's position. Apply for a j o b at msnbc. We will get more accurate information.

[Drunken Irishman]

51. So far, it's looking very status quo.

Corzine is winning the counties he was supposed to win. Losing the counties he was supposed to lose.

He won in 2005 by 10-points, but that isn't happening this time around.

Counties he is currently losing in that he won in 2005:

Gloucester (which is really close right now) and Bergen County (again, close).

[Bimmer]

55. Appreciate the work everyone is doing. Thx.

Do you think Corzine can pull this off? God I hope he can win...I don't know if I can stomach GOP talking points about "Obama referendum" for a few days...

[Drunken Irishman]

57. Yes.

It's going to be tight regardless. I think it'll come down to who gets their core supporters out the most.

It's looking like a 50-50 race at the moment.

[Sebass1271]

68. Welcome to DU!!. what a day to join in?

huh?
well, at least you found us so you won't be alone with our lying msm


..

[Drunken Irishman]

54. Really tight now! 49-44!

[mvd]

58. Good - I'll be watching this all night! Really want to beat Christie

What percentage would you put Corzine winning the race at?

[Drunken Irishman]

61. Like odds or if he were to win what would it be by?

Well I'd say it's 50-50 right now.

If he wins...I'll go 48-47-5

[mvd]

66. I meant win

I put it a little above 50% at this point, but I agree with the small margin.

[Jennicut]

59. Hey, where are you getting the results from the individual precincts?

I can only get the total # of votes on the NJ.com website.

[Bimmer]

62. Cool

Thanks Drunkenman. I was looking a John Kind on CNN, none of the Dem counties had really come in yet, but the GOP strongholds were reporting a decent %. 44-49.

[Drunken Irishman]

63. No one panic as the Republican counties come in...

Right now there was a shift, putting Christie up about 8. However, most Republican-leaning counties are reporting now.

[Bimmer]

65. Thanks Drunken once again!

Keep it up. This helps a lot.

[Drunken Irishman]

70. You're welcome.

And welcome to DU!

It's going to be a very long night. haha. It reminds me of election night 2008.

Except I felt really good about our chances. Right now, I'd like to see what NJ looks like with 60+% reporting.

[mvd]

73. I would also like to thank you

You make it easy to keep track.

[Kdillard]

69. Right now I have Christie up by 7. This going to swing back and frth for a while.

[MadBadger]

76. Down 12 in Union worries me.

With 22% in

[LaydeeBug]

78. a dem operative I know says we lost both states.

but he is a bit of an egoist. the problem is, you KNOW the campaigns know by now.

[Drunken Irishman]

83. The way the results are trending, Corzine might lose.

His best counties are coming in at a fast pace and it's not offsetting Christie's numbers from his best counties.

Look at Hudson. 57% reporting, Corzine leads 68-27 and he's still down statewide by 10. :/

[Drunken Irishman]

77. Right now, it's difficult to see where this race is going to go.

Like I said to another poster, we'll start really getting an idea with 60% in.

Either way, I sense a very tight outcome. So getting to 60% might just tell us if Corzine has a chance or not. If he's still down by 8-10 points at that point, I'm going to call it a night and say he's done.

[WI_DEM]

79. Whose counties are reporting so far? GOP or Dem?

[MadBadger]

85. Both

Gloucester went to Lautenberg last year by 14, but Corzine lost it by 3 with 94% in. Ocean is 91% in with Corzine losing by 38, Lautenberg only lost it by 12.

Lautenberg won by 14 last fall.

[Drunken Irishman]

88. It's a mix.

That's what worries me.

Of the five counties that haven't started reporting, Pres. Obama did win three of them. So maybe there is some hope.

[HughMoran]

80. Didn't expect Corzine to get crushed like this

[Kdillard]

89. If another thread is to be believed Democrats have not come out and the

unpopular tax measures he has had to take have done him in but it is early still.

[Sebass1271]

94. what tax measures? he raised taxes to working class?

[Kdillard]

97. Corzine came into a financial mess in NJ and he had to make

budgetary considerations to reflect that reality.

[Sebass1271]

103. well,wht the hell? he doesnt have a mouth to remind voters

how he found the state and the difficult decisions he had to make to get it afloat? this is what happens with politicians, they win, take power and sound very politician later forgetting that the way to keep voters interested in politics and informed is bying doing just that, speaking the truth and not sounding like a scratch record.

[Kdillard]

123. He did that in the debates but i guess people don't want to hear it.

[Sebass1271]

132. typical short spam mentality of the american people.

fast! we want it now! instant gratification bull shit.

[Drunken Irishman]

90. It tightens up again. 49-44. 44% in.

[MadBadger]

91. Huge Victory for Corzine in Sussex. The results there dont make much sense

In 2008, Obama lost there by 21%, but Corzine wins by 38%? Maybe they switched the results?

[Drunken Irishman]

93. That's fishy, no doubt.

Especially since it says 100% reporting.

[Drunken Irishman]

92. fivethirtyeight: Corzine looks to be projecting to 45-48 percent of the vote statewide.

Which would put him right in the range to win.

[MadBadger]

96. Yea, I officially dont believe the 49-44 number. Sussex is heavily Republican

I'm definitely feeling results were reported the wrong way

[Drunken Irishman]

100. Hey, maybe they stole it. :P

[Robbins]

102. MSNBC

They have It now 49 for Christie and 45 for Corzine.The closest It has been all night.

[Drunken Irishman]

106. That's what all the sites are saying...

And every site is counting Corzine's win Sussex.

[MadBadger]

107. It was flipped. Politico just updated the results. Its now 50.4-43.5

[Drunken Irishman]

98. Corzine inches closer. 49-45 now...53% in.

Most of Christie's strongest counties are reporting 90%+.

[mvd]

101. Feeling better, worse, or about the same right now?

[Drunken Irishman]

105. I don't know. If the Sussex numbers are right, he's in good shape...

But I have a feeling they're not. Those numbers look off and if they're flipped, it'll give Christie a 621,412 to 543,841 lead. That would put his percentage higher than it is now.

[PM7nj]

99. Corzine lost Gloucester County.

Not good. He won it in 2005 and it is considered to be a bellwether.

[MadBadger]

108. UPDATE: Corzine lost Sussex County by 38 points, not won it.

[Thrill]

112. Ouch. Obama got beat there by 20

[Drunken Irishman]

109. They just flipped Sussex and gave it to Christie. This thing might be over.

Corzine is down 50-43.5 right now with 58% reporting. He needs huge gains in his counties or he's done.

[Kdillard]

110. Ugh.(

[Drunken Irishman]

113. Yeah...

Ugh is right. I don't know what to think. The good news is right now Hudson is at only 57%. Bad news, he's losing Atlantic County.

[PM7nj]

114. He's only up 10% in Camden.

65% in. Most heavily Democratic county in South Jersey. It's over.

[Drunken Irishman]

116. He also is losing Atlantic County.

He's toast. Corzine might lose by a larger than expected margin.

[Sebass1271]

115. God, we should might as well turn off the media for the next

two weeks. it is going to be blood bath on how bad dems have been.. ugh.. really.. feel like puking now..

[Drunken Irishman]

120. I will. Thank God for college football. :)

[MadBadger]

122. Ive been ignoring them for months now

I dont remember the last time I really sat down and watched a full hour of media babble.

Ive really emerged myself in the Washington Redskins fandom this year to get away from the media....thats turned out well

[ind_thinker2]

111. difference is 100,000 votes, i donot think he will make it

[mvd]

Don't give up yet

If Christie wins, this is a very sad night for me.

[Drunken Irishman]

121. Sorry mvd. :(

[mvd]

126. I just don't understand

Don't voters remember the Repuke policies that didn't work? It happens way too often - Democrats start cleaning up the mess but to voters it's not fast enough.

[Sebass1271]

131. yeap, me too.. can't understand it..

[ej510]

117. It sounds like Corzine lost.

[Sebass1271]

119. Welcome to DU!

[Sebass1271]

124. Can someone explain to me, the guy comes in, finds

a mess up state financially due to republicans mismanagement, tried to fix it and then, gets blamed for? Why do voters are sooo stupid? or is it the media that is not doing its job and is giving its citizens a disservice by not informing what is truly going on?

I really can't comprehend this. They would rather vote the guy out instead of trying to give him another shot so he can finish the job. They gave it to another republican. Greeeeat thinking! NJ will be in a shit hole for a looong time now.

Tax cuts are coming! Deficit is growing, but who cares when it is a republican raising it??

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

130. TAXES!! TAXES!! TAXES!! In New Jersey, it's always about taxes, and I don't understand it.

In order to balance the budget, governors have to make very tough decisions, cutting programs here and there, raising taxes. A state has to have a healthy tax base which NJ does, and some of the best schools. Even in Newark and S. Orange, the schools aren't as bad as, say, here in D.C.

But Tip O'Neill told us that ALL POLITICS ARE LOCAL!! Regardless of who's in power, incumbents suffer when the local economy is bad whether it is their fault or not. But, you're right. Americans aren't politically sophisticated. They in fact are really stupid!!! I'm saying these things as a political science professor. Americans are not very politically savvy.

[Azathoth]

125. Hate to say it, but I think the nets are going to call this one for Christie soon

I can't see where Corzine is going to get enough votes to close the gap.

[Drunken Irishman]

127. There isn't any votes out there.

He's essentially down 100,000 votes. There isn't 100,000 votes out there.

[Sebass1271]

133. That truly sucks. NJ is supposed to be a blue state.

what the fuck? is my theory above correct? Dems are disillusioned at the Dem congress/senate incompetence and a president that doesn't have the cojones to tell repukes, screw you, we won. We don't need you.?

[MadBadger]

134. Race is over